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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.