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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."